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☆ Australia wages see record rise in Q3, unlikely to be repeated
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Loren Elliott/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSYDNEY, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Australian wages posted the largest increase on record last quarter as a sharp rise in minimum wages benefited millions of workers, while intense competition among employers pushed up many individual pay deals. Annual pay growth picked up to 4.0%, from 3.6%, the fastest since early 2009 and just above market expectations of 3.9%. "Q3 was a perfect storm for wage pressures," said Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting for Oxford Economics Australia. Much of the spike was due to a mandated 5.75% rise in the minimum wage which covers more than two million workers. Wage growth in the public sector accelerated to a 12-year high of 3.5%, while the private sector saw growth of 4.2% as firms fought to recruit and retain workers.

Persons: Loren Elliott, Sean Langcake, Wayne Cole, Tom Hogue, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Australian Bureau, Statistics, Reserve Bank of Australia, Analysts, Oxford Economics Australia, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia

☆ Australia July jobs take a surprise fall as market loosens
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A worker pushes a trolley loaded with goods past a construction site in the central business district (CBD) of Sydney in Australia, March 15, 2018. REUTERS/David Gray/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSYDNEY, Aug 17 (Reuters) - Australia employment unexpectedly fell in July to end two months of very strong growth, while the jobless rate ticked higher in a sign the drum-tight labour market might finally be loosening. "Even so, the deterioration in the labour market has a long way to run before the RBA can completely relax." The labour market has proved remarkably resilient with 399,000 net jobs added in the 12 months to July even as interest rates have climbed 400 basis points to a decade-high of 4.1%. "It is getting harder to argue for a sustained lift in wage inflation momentum," said Justin Smirk, a senior economist at Westpac.

Persons: David Gray, Ben Udy, Justin Smirk, Wayne Cole, Jacqueline Wong, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Bank of Australia, Australian Bureau of Statistics, ABS, Oxford Economics Australia, Westpac, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia

☆ Australia Q2 wage gains underwhelm, argue against further hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-15 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"Wage growth has been stuck at 0.8% q/q for the past three quarters – a somewhat surprisingly slow pace given the very low level of the unemployment rate," said Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting for Oxford Economics Australia. Despite higher interest rates, Australia's jobless rate is hovering near 50-year low of 3.5% and the economy is adding more jobs than expected. The RBA now sees a credible path where inflation could be restrained with interest rates at their current level, minutes showed on Tuesday. The path involves annual wage growth peaking at 4.1% by the end of the year before easing back to 3.6% by end-2025, according to the bank's latest forecasts. The ABS data showed wages in the public sector picked up to an annual rise of 3.1% while growth in private sector wages increased 3.8%.

Persons: David Gray, Sean Langcake, Andrew Boak, Goldman Sachs, Stella Qiu, Kim Coghill, Sonali Paul, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: REUTERS, Reserve Bank of Australia, Australian Bureau, Statistics, Oxford Economics, Thomson Locations: Newcastle, Sydney, Australia, SYDNEY, Oxford Economics Australia

☆ Australia May employment blows past expectations, piling pressure on RBA
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The bond yield curve, which was already inverted to signal risks of a recession, inverted further after the jobs report, with the spread between ten-year and three-year government bond yields turning negative. "The labour market remains very tight, which will contribute to stronger wage growth over 2023," said Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting for Oxford Economics Australia. "The RBA has maintained a hawkish tone following the June rate rise, expressing concerns over the persistence of underlying inflation. Job advertisements were mostly steady in May after three months of declines and remained 52% above pre-COVID levels. Reporting by Stella Qiu; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Sonali PaulOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Sean Langcake, Langcake, Philip Lowe, Stella Qiu, Muralikumar Anantharaman, Sonali Paul Organizations: SYDNEY, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Reserve Bank of Australia, Oxford Economics, Thomson Locations: Oxford Economics Australia

☆ Australia first-quarter business investment hits 7-year high, outlook solid
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/4] Pedestrians walk in front of a crane and scaffolding on a construction site in central Sydney, Australia, May 31, 2018. REUTERS/David GraySYDNEY, June 1 (Reuters) - Australian business investment rose to a seven-year high in the first quarter, helped by a jump in spending on mining, manufacturing and transport, while firms affirmed plans for solid spending in the year ahead. First-quarter investment by Australia's huge mining sector climbed 1.7%, accelerating from a rise of 0.7% in the previous quarter. The capital spending figures will feed into data on gross domestic product (GDP) due next week. Construction work done came in better-than-expected, although residential building remained soft, likely making a flat contribution to Q1 GDP growth.

Persons: David Gray SYDNEY, Sean Langcake, Stella Qiu, Jacqueline Wong, Edwina Gibbs Organizations: REUTERS, Australian Bureau, Statistics, Oxford Economics Australia, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia

☆ Australia employment unexpectedly drops, reinforcing rate pause bets
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SYDNEY, May 18 (Reuters) - Australia employment unexpectedly dipped in April after two months of outsized gains, and the jobless rate also ticked up in a sign the red-hot labour market might be cooling, bolstering the case for a pause in interest rate hikes next month. The jobless rate ticked up to a three-month high of 3.7% from a near 50-year low of 3.5%, when analysts had expected no change. Markets reinforced bets of a rate pause next month but were pricing in some risk of a move in August or September. "We expect to see a gradual softening in labour market conditions over 2023 as the impact of interest rate increases to date start to bite," said Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting for Oxford Economics Australia. "NAB's view is that there will likely be at least one further rate increase, but we remain close to the peak of this interest rate cycle."

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